INTRODUCTIONWorld trade has staged a steady, if unspectacular, recovery since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Volumes of merchandise goods trade collapsed by 12% in 2009, rebounded strongly in 2010, and since then have grown by an annual average of 2.8%. Trade in services has been growing faster, meanwhile: it grew by 5.4% annually on average between 2005 and 2017, according to the WTO. Until very recently, prospects for 2020 were fairly encouraging. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook for January was tentatively positive. Stronger market sentiment, firm consumer spending and improved business investment were all identified as elements that would drive an acceleration in global GDP growth. World trade volumes of goods and services were forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2020, up from an estimated 1% in 2019. More recent forecasts have been sobering, however. In early Apr
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