专栏名称: 经济逻辑
经济逻辑解读当前经济现象,剖析背后经济本源,寻找宏观与微观的必然逻辑,只做大宗商品衍生品领域内的深度阅读,为用户提供最有价值的宏观研究,产业链调研,产业链基本面深度研投。
专栏主题
分享
今天看啥  ›  专栏  ›  公众号  ›  经济逻辑

经济逻辑|桥水基金:中国40年改革回顾

经济逻辑  · 公众号  · 2019-01-06 14:01

【经济逻辑】解读当前经济现象,剖析背后经济本源,寻找宏观与微观的必然逻辑,只做大宗商品衍生品领域内的深度阅读,为用户提供最有价值的宏观研究,产业链调研,产业链基本面深度研投,致力于大宗商品衍生品领域内最具价值研投平台


原文作者:RayDalio (全球最大对冲基金,桥水基金创始人)             

翻译:普瑞期货 费剑飞


2018年底是中国改革开放40周年,也是对中国经济未来提出疑问的时刻。也是回顾中国近40年来发生了什么改变和其原因的时刻。

 

下表仅列出了一些有代表性的统计数据。这些结果不言而喻。为这么多人在这么多领域取得了这么多成效,中国创造了最伟大的经济奇迹。显然,他们的方法颇有成效。那么,这些成就背后的原因又会继续下去吗?

 



我有幸亲历了这40年改革开放中的34年。这一期间我致力于研究一个国家成败的原因,因此我有一些经验和想法想要分享。 下文是我对中国的回顾。 随后我会发布关于中国当前经济和未来可能性的更加全面具体的报告。

 

根据我的观察,我相信中国的领导层和中国人民取得如此令人印象深刻的成绩是以下几个原因的综合: 1. 中国在长期与世隔绝之后的开放带来了加速追赶(尤其是沿海地区);2. 中国文化的力量,以及其运作的相关方式。

 

我第一次接触到这一点是在1984年中国刚刚开放时。我被中信(这是唯一的“窗口公司”,唯一一家被允许自由接触外界的公司)邀请来教他们世界金融市场的运作方式。我立即了解了这种文化,可以看出中国当时的落后不同于其他欠发达国家。在中国,人文高度发达,但与世界其他地区的进步相隔离(而大多数其他发达国家则相反)。

 

举一个中国当时因为与世隔绝而欠发展的例子,我给了一些高层人士价值10美元的计算器,他们认为这些计算器很神奇。为了让您了解自那时以来中国的发展速度,这其中有些人目前正掌管着一些全球最先进的科学技术。

 

早在1984年,我就看到没有什么可以阻止中国成为发达国家,我知道中国正在打开大门,我可以想象会发生重大本质变化。由于封闭的大门是导致中国与发达国家之间存在两种不同经济水平的障碍,因此移除该障碍自然会使其经济水平相等,就像无限制的水自然地寻求相同的水平。我记得在中信的“巧克力大楼”的10楼做了一个讲座。我指了指窗外的两层胡同(贫民区),并告诉我的听众不久之后胡同就会消失,摩天大楼会拔地而起。他们不相信我,并告诉我“你不了解中国”。我告诉他们,他们不知道开放后会发生的经济套利(arbitrages)的力量。这一开放,是我们在过去40年中看到的高增长率背后的最大力量。

 

开放创造了一个很好的自然机会,并且中国人充分利用了它。他们通过制定和实施受中国独特文化影响的改革来做到这一点。这些改革让中国人民意识到自己的潜力。

 

当我第一次来到中国时,除了看到它欠开发的原因是与世隔绝之外,还有一个原因是老式的共产主义制度。它几乎没有提供任何激励或效率。例如,人们无法选择自己的职业和工作,没有允许私营企业,政府企业(即所有企业)运营效率低下,并且很少或根本没有人努力工作和做好工作。 在接下来的几年里,我看到许多优秀而迅速的改革改变了这一切。比我看到他们所做的具体改革更重要的是,我看到他们如何进行改革 - 即,他们如何提出许多重大的改革思路,制定计划,跟随计划,然后完成改革。中国人把一件事从想象变成现实的能力是非常惊人的。

 

例如,在1989年,我受中信的朋友介绍认识了7位很好的朋友。这些人来自9家公司,并应有远见的改革者的要求,组建了一个组织(证券交易执行委员会),并在中国建立第一个金融市场。中国当时仍然很穷,所以他们的办公室在一个昏暗的酒店,并缺乏足够的资金。但他们拥有最重要的东西 - 即创造巨大变革的明确使命,聪明并且品格高尚的人,有助于快速学习的开放思想,以及实现目标的决心。在接下来的几十年中,我看到他们和其他许多人如何把中国金融市场建立成为世界上最大的金融市场之一。我参与了其中的小部分,这也是我一生中最大的乐趣之一。通过这一切,我产生了对中国人民,中国文化以及这些力量带来的快速改变的热爱和尊重。

 

作为1995年这些情感的延伸,我让我11岁的儿子马特与一位非凡而谦逊的中国女人顾女士住在一起,去了一所贫穷的当地学校(史家胡同小学)。与中国当时的整体情况一样,学校也很穷。虽然这所学校很穷(例如,直到十一月底都没有暖气,学生们得在课堂上穿着外套),但我看到他们拥有聪明而有爱心的教育工作者,他们为孩子们提供了包括性格发展在内的优秀,完整的教育。虽然马特的生活条件艰苦(例如,因为他住的旧公寓楼每周只有两天热水,他不能每天洗热水澡),但他受到了出色的教育,关爱和人格发展,甚至超过了我们富裕的格林威治社区。这段经历永远改变了他的人生,并致使他建立了一个帮助中国孤儿的基金会。他掌管这个基金12年,使他和我有了更多的机会感受中国的人文。

 

我通过这些经历认识了一些中国领导人,并学到了很多关于中国文化的知识。包括它当前如何运作以及它在几千年内是如何发展的– 包括家庭成员之间以及和其他人相处的观念,儒家以及新儒家思想,各朝各代的事件,以及这些历史事件所提供的关于如何领导和追随的经验教训。久而久之我所观察到的这些价值观和处事方式便是我所指的中国文化。例如,我可以看到中国文化如何将L光耀和D小平联系起来,他们共同探索如何建立“中国特色社会主义市场经济”。虽然我不是中国文化及其运作方式的专家,但我确实相信我对它一定程度的了解能够帮助那些从未与其接触过的人。

 

最重要的是,如果你没有在中国待过一段时间,你必须摒弃你脑中对中国的所有刻板印象,因为它不是那样的。这不是你父辈时代所说共产主义。这是经过显著、有效的改革之后的“中国特色社会主义”。它生机勃勃,富有创造性,并且经济自由。

 

在我分享更多关于这一点的想法之前,我想传递当前国家主席关于过去40年改革以及未来的重要观察。对于那些想要理解其核心观点的人来说,值得一读。

 

主席多次提到“中国特色”,但没有对其明确定义。 虽然中国人比我更了解中国文化,能够更好地对其描述,但我想在此推荐一本叫《中国特色》的书。这是一位美国观察家在19世纪晚期的一篇关于中国文化的著作,其中一些让我引起共鸣(不过我要说明一下我不完全赞同书中所有观点,因为有很多内容当前已经过时)。不过,我仍想冒昧的描述一下我对中国文化根基的了解。由于我不是中国学者,我的评论完全是基于我的感触和我有限的研究。因此请不必完全相信我的言论。

 

根据我的经验和我从一些中国知情人士所听到的,我认为中国领导层以治家的理念治国,从上到下,保持高标准的行为,将集体利益放在任何个人利益之前,每个成员都知道他们的位置,并且对层级中的人有所尊重,这样整个系统才能有条不紊地运作。一位中国领导人在跟我解释这个的时候说道,“国家”这个词由两个角色组成,即国和家。这影响着他们如何看待自己在照顾国和家中的角色。有人可能会说中国政府如同父母。例如,它规定了儿童每天能玩多少小时电子游戏。作为一个广泛的概括,当国家的利益与个人的利益不一致时,国家的利益应该优先于个人的利益。个人是更大机器的一部分。由于这种观点,该系统旨在发展,促进和奖励良好品格的人。例如,它为人们提供社会信用评分,评估其公民身份的质量。每个人都应该将自己视为更大整体的一部分。 这种自上而下的管理方式也包括规划中国未来5年,10年和20年应该是什么样的,然后制定和管理详细的多年计划以建立这一愿景,目标是尽最大努力建设好中国。中国的经营更像是一家拥有众多子公司的大公司,一些在政府的直接控制范围内,一些在其间接控制范围内。

 

在这40年中,经济体制得到了改革,允许了更加充分的市场化以及对个人利益的追求,前提是这一追求建立在良好的公民基础之上(包括对制度的尊重)。这包括私营部门和私有财产的增长。

 

因此我们在过去40年中看到中国围绕中国传统的经营方式进行了许多重大而实际的改革。主席在最近的一次讲话中说,“该改的坚决改,不该改、不能改的坚决不改”。指明要在保持中国传统治理制度的同时进行重大改革。

 

在中国文化一直在不断发展的同时,它最基本的层面成百上千年来一直以相似的方式运作,并且这种运作方式带来的结果可被粗略估计。我最近一直在研究储备货币的涨跌,从而让我研究世界上最强大国家的兴衰。最终导致我的研究团队和我汇总了1500年以来主要国家的相对权力指数。这些指数由六个子指数的组合,衡量六种不同类型的权力:1)创新和竞争力,2)国内产出,3)世界贸易份额,4)金融中心规模和力量,5)军事实力,以及6)储备货币情况 – 这显示了不同国家相对于世界其他国家的峰值。如图所示,中国从1500年到1800年左右一直是数一数二的国家,随后进入相对的颓势并持续到大约40年前,当时开放的开始带领中国走向了上升之路。中国已经成为世界第二强大国家,并正走向最强。我相信,这一出色的成绩主要是中国强大的文化和改革的结果。




 

下图显示中国过去900年来每个独立指标的走势




下图显示过去900年中国的总体指数走势。可见中国在过去这个前千年绝大部分时间都很成功,直到最近150年左右。(其中的原因我不想去深究)



 

鉴于这令人印象深刻成绩以及它背后深厚的文化底蕴,我们不应指望中国最基本的运营方式会有很大改变。因此,虽然贸易可以进行谈判,但试图改变“中国特色”,最重要的是大幅改变成就中国之伟大的自上而下的政府管理制度,是不会奏效的。

虽然大家对贸易战给予了相当多的关注,但更重要的是中国和美国正处于文化方向的竞争中,并且美国和中国的文化方向更像是相反的。最基本的是,美国是个人,个人主义和个人财产权为重。它是自下而上的(例如,通过“一人一票”民主国家赋予人们选择领导者的权利),革命被视作一件好事,冲突和碰撞比和谐更有价值。与其尊重自上而下的控制权,大多数美国人都倾向于不让政府干涉他们最个人的选择。性格发展是个人或家庭的问题,而不是政府问题(导致了在家庭破碎的地区,特别是如果很穷的话,它们在很大程度上被忽视了)。在资本主义和民主制度中,国家治理的方向自下而上,基于商业利益和主流大众的考虑,而不是基于对国家长期愿景的规划和实践。

 

我在这里不是说哪个系统更好。每种文化/系统都有其优点和缺点,我现在不想深入讨论。我认为重要的是要知道,虽然会有贸易战和贸易停战,但它们并不是最重要的事情。最重要的是:1)中国有一个长期以来运作良好的文化和制度,因此不应该有太大变化,2)美国也是相同的情况,3) 这些制度(以及其他国家的制度)将是竞争和合作共存,它们的表现如何将对全球局势产生深远影响,4)每个制度在实践中的运作情况将对每个国家未来的地位产生更大的影响,而不是它们相互打交道的条款,因此每个国家都应该好好检视自己的弱点,并提出改革来纠正它们,5)造就中国瞩目成就的文化和方法得到了许多尊重,6)我们应该很好地相互学习,合作和竞争,相互促进,而不是互相撕裂,7)中国是一个我们需要继续发展和投资的地方。


欢迎商品,债券,宏观,投资总监,研究员,分析师,大宗商品各产业链研究员入群(汇聚全国3000名公募,私募基金经理,3000名产业链高级研究员,1000名宏观研究员,10000名大宗商品现货商)

点击原文阅读,填写相关信息后,报公司+岗位+姓名加微信群,添加逻辑君微信:xelogic 加入宏观商品债券及产业链群。

长按以下二维码添加公众号


英文版


As the end of 2018 marks the 40th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping and China’s other leaders opening up and reforming China and since this is also a time of greater questioning of China’s economic future, it is a good time to reflect on how China’s last 40 years have gone and why.  


The table below shows just a few representative statistics. These results speak for themselves. To have such rates of improvements in so many areas and for so many people has made it the greatest economic miracle ever. Clearly whatever they did worked great. So, what was behind these accomplishments and will they continue?


Since I have been fortunate to have experienced 34 years of this 40 years in an up close and intimate way, and since I study what makes countries succeed and fail, I have some experiences and thoughts to share    This is a retrospective look at China. A more comprehensive report about the current state of the economy and what is likely to come will follow shortly.


From what I have seen, I believe that the very impressive results that the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people produced came about primarily because of the powerful combination of a) China’s opening up and reforming following an extended period of isolation that led to a fast catching up (especially in the coastal regions of China) with the advanced developed world, and b) the power of the Chinese culture and it’ related ways of operating. 


My first exposure to this came in 1984 when China was just opening. I was invited by CITIC (which was the only “window company,” which means the only company that was allowed to freely deal with the outside world) to teach them how the world financial markets work.  I immediately got a taste for the culture and could see that China was undeveloped for different reasons than other underdeveloped countries. In China’s case, the people and culture were highly developed and suffered from isolation from the advances that occurred in the rest of the world (whereas in most other developed countries the reverse was the case). 


As an example of how undeveloped China was at the time because of lack of contact with the outside world, I gave senior people $10 calculators which they then thought were miraculous. To give you an idea of the rate of progress since then, some of those people are now overseeing the development of some of the most cutting-edge technologies in the world. 


Back in 1984, I saw that there was nothing about the Chinese people that prevented them from being as successful as those in the developed world, and I knew that China was opening its door, I could imagine the essence of the big changes that would occur. Because the closed door was a barrier that led to two different economic levels to exist between China and the developed world, the removal of that barrier would naturally equalize their economic levels like unconstrained water naturally seeks the same level. I remember being on the 10th floor of CITIC’s “Chocolate Building,” giving a lecture and pointing out the window to the two-story hutongs (poor neighborhoods) and telling my audience that it would not be long before the hutongswould be gone and skyscrapers would be there in their place. They didn’t believe me and told me “you don’t know China,” and I told them they did not know the power of the economic arbitrages that would happen as a result of opening up. That opening was the biggest force behind the high rates of improvement that we saw over the last 40 years.  

While the opening up created a great natural opportunity, the Chinese made the most of it. They did that by making and implementing reforms that were driven by uniquely Chinese cultural influences. These reforms freed up the Chinese people to realize their potential. 


When I first came to China, in addition to seeing that it was undeveloped because of its isolation, I saw that it was underdeveloped because it was run by an old-style communist system that provided little incentives or efficiencies. For example, people couldn’t choose their own careers and jobs, there were no private businesses allowed, government businesses (i.e., all business) were inefficiently run, and there were little or no incentives for working hard and doing a good job. In the years that followed, I saw numerous excellent and rapid reforms change all that. Even more important than my getting to see the particular reforms that they made, I got to see how they make reforms – I.e., how they come up with numerous big reform ideas, plan them out, get behind them, and then get them done.  The demonstrated ability of the Chinese to go from visualizations to actualizations is quite amazing.        


For example, in 1989 I was introduced by my CITIC friend and contact Wang Li to a group of seven good people (which she was one of) who were appointed by nine companies at the request of the visionary reformer Wang Qishan to create an organization (the Stock Exchange Executive Council) to set up the first financial markets in China. China was still very poor, so their office was in a dingy hotel and they lacked adequate funding. Still they had what mattered most—i.e., a clear mission to create big changes, smart people of good character, open-mindedness to allow rapid learning and determination to achieve their goals. Over the decades that followed, I saw how they and many others built the Chinese financial markets to become among the largest in the world, and I got to participate in small ways, which has been one of the great joys of my life. Through all this I gained a love and respect for the Chinese people, the Chinese culture, and their rapid rates of improvements that these forces brought about. .


As an extension of these sentiments in 1995, I had my 11-year-old son Matt live with an extraordinary and humble Chinese woman, Madame Gu, and go to a poor local school (Shi Jia Hu Tong Xiao Xue). All schools in China, like most everything else, were poor then. Though this school was poor (e.g., there wasn’t heat until late November so students wore their coats in classes), I saw how they had smart and caring educators who provided the children with an excellent, complete education that included character development. While Matt’s lifestyle was poor (e.g., he couldn’t take hot showers because the old apartment building he lived in only had hot water two days a week) he was superbly educated, loved, and better developed than in our rich Greenwich community. The experience changed his life forever and led him to set up a foundation to help Chinese orphans that he ran for 12 years that brought him and me into many more experiences with Chinese people and Chinese culture in China.


Through experiences like these and by getting to know some of the Chinese leaders, I learned a lot more about the Chinese culture, about how it operates today and about how it evolved over thousands of years —-from notions of how family members and others should behave with each other, through Confucian thinking, through Neo-Confucian thinking, through various dynasties and with the lessons these events provided about how leaders should lead and how followers should follow. These values and ways of operating are what I’m referring to when I refer to the Chinese culture, which I saw manifested over and over. I For example, I could see how that Chinese culture connected Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping so that they together could explore how China could have a “socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.” Though I’m no expert on Chinese culture and its way of operating, I do believe that I have some sense of it that might be helpful to those who haven’t had such exposures to it.


Most importantly, if you haven’t spent time in China, you need to get any stereotypes you might have out of your mind because it’s not how it was. This is not your father’s communism. It is “socialism with Chinese characteristics” that has been significantly and very effectively reformed, which has made it much more vital, creative, and economically free.

President Xi refers a lot to “Chinese characteristics,” though he doesn’t define them.  While what defines Chinese culture would be better described by Chinese who are more knowledgeable than I am, I will refer you to the book Chinese Characteristics (here) – an American observer writing about Chinese culture in the late 1800s, some of which I think resonates today (though I’ll note that don’t agree with everything in the book, some of which is very outdated). Still, I will inadequately describe what I think Chinese culture most fundamentally is. As I’m not a Chinese scholar so that my comments are made solely on the basis of my contacts and my limited research, please take what I’m saying with a grain of salt.


From my experiences and from what I am told by Chinese who should know, I believe Chinese leadership seeks to run the country the way they believe a good family should be run, from the top down, maintaining high standards of behavior, putting the collective interest ahead of any individual interest, with each member knowing their place and having filial respect for those in the hierarchy so the system works in an orderly way. One of China’s leaders who explained this concept to me told that the word “country” consists of two characters, state and family, which influences how they view their role in looking after their state/family. One might say that the Chinese government is paternal. For example, it regulates what types of video games are watched by children and how many hours a day they play them. As a broad generalization, when the interest of the country (like the family) is at odds with the interest of the individual, the interest of the country (like the interest of the family) should be favored over the interest of the individual. Individuals are parts of a greater machine. As a result of this perspective, the system seeks to develop, promote and reward good character and good citizenship. For example it gives people a social credit score that rates the quality of their citizenship. And each person is expected to view themselves as parts of the greater whole. This management from the top down includes visualizing what China 5, 10 and 20 years in the future should be like and then making and managing detailed multiyear plans to build out that vision, with the goal being to make China as great as it can be. China is run more like a giant company with many subsidiaries, some within the government’s direct control and some within its indirect control. 


Over those 40 years, the economic system was reformed to allow much more market-oriented and freer pursuit of self-interest as long that pursuit is pursed with good citizenship (including respect for the ruling system and its rules),. That included having growth of the private sector and private property. 


So what we have seen over the last 40 years is China making many big, practical reforms around a traditional Chinese way of operating. As Xi said in a recent speech, “we will reform the things that should be reformed and not reform the things that shouldn’t be reformed,” referring to having big changes while maintaining the traditional Chinese style governance system.


While Chinese culture has been evolving, it has at its most fundamental level been operating in similar ways for many hundreds or even thousands of years and the results of operating that way are knowable in an approximate way. I have recently been researching the rise and fall of reserve currencies, which led me to study the rises and declines of the world’s most powerful countries. That led my research team and me to put together the following indices of the relative powers of leading countries since 1500. These indices are a combination of six sub-indices that measure six different types of power: 1) innovation & competitiveness, 2) domestic output, 3) share of world trade, 4) financial-center size and power, 5) military strength, and 6) reserve-currency status—and they show when different countries reached their peaks relative to the rest of the world. As shown, China was either the number one or number two most powerful country from 1500 to at around1800 when it went into relative decline that continued until around 40 years ago when the opening up and reforming led to the previously described strong ascent to being the second-most powerful country in the world and on the path to being the most powerful one. I believe that excellent performance was largely the result of China’s powerful culture and its reforms.   

The chart below shows each of the six measures of Chinese strength going back to 900.

The next chart shows our overall index going back to the year 900. As you can see, China has been a very successful country through the millennia except for the more recent 150 years or so (for reasons I won’t delve into now).


Given that impressive track record and how deeply imbued the culture behind it is, we shouldn’t expect China’s most fundamental ways of operating to change much. As a result, while trade deals can be made, attempts to change “Chinese characteristics”,—most importantly to change the top-down government management of most/all aspects of the system pursuit of making China as great as it can be—won’t work.


While considerable attention is now being paid to the trade war, what is more important is that China and the US are in a competition of cultural approaches, with the US approach being more opposite than similar to the Chinese approach Most fundamentally, the US is a country in which individuals, individualism, and individual property rights are perceived to be of paramount importance it is directed from the bottom up (e.g., through “one man, one vote” democracies that empower people to choose their leaders), being revolutionary is considered a good thing, and conflict is valued more than harmony. Rather than respecting top down control most American have a strong preference to keep government from interfering with their most individual choices. Character development is a personal or family issue, not a government issue (which leaves it largely neglected in areas with broken families, especially if they’re poor). Rather than there being a long-term top down vision for the country and a plan to achieve that vision, in the capitalist and democratic system such directions are more bottom up determined based on commercial and popularity considerations.


I’m not saying which system is better. Each culture/system has its pros and cons that I’m not going to get into now. I believe that the important thing to know are that while there will be trade wars and trade truces they aren’t the most important things. The most important things are that 1) China has a culture and system that has worked well for it for a long time so it shouldn’t be expected to change much, 2) the U.S. has the same, 3) these systems (and those of other countries) will be both competing and cooperating, and how well they do that will be an important influence on global conditions, 4) how well each system works in practice will have a far greater influence on where each country stands in the future than the terms of the deals that they strike with each other, so each would do well to examine its own weaknesses and come up with reforms to rectify them, and 5) there is a lot to respect about the Chinese culture and approach that led to its remarkable accomplishments, 6) we would do well to learn from each other, cooperate and compete to bring each other up rather than to tear each other down, and 7) China is a place we need to continue to evolve with and invest in. 




今天看啥 - 让阅读更高品质
本文地址:http://www.jintiankansha.me/t/ZsH94FhBrW