编辑：蔡婉秋 审核：丁克达Longer-Run Economic Consequences of PandemicsLonger-Run Economic Consequences of PandemicsNBER Working Paper No. 25839, 2019Òscar Jordà, Federal Reserve Bank of San FranciscoSanjay R. Singh, University of California at DavisAlan M. Taylor, University of CaliforniaAbstractHow do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer
term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these
are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required.
We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to
the 14th century, focusing on 15 major pandemics where more than 100,000
people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in
a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects
of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of retur
………………………………
