13期编辑：傅延琪 审核：朱清源Topic: Impulse and Propagation MechanismsConfidence and the Propagation of Demand ShocksReal Credit CyclesAsset Specificity of Non-Financial FirmsReservation Raises: The Aggregate Labor Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin1. Confidence and the Propagation of Demand ShocksWorking Paper, issued in July 2020George-Marios Angeletos, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBERChen Lian, University of California at BerkeleyAbstractWe revisit the question of why shifts in consumer spending drive business cycles. Our theory combines intertemporal substitution in production with rational confusion (or bounded rationality) in
consumption. The first element allows aggregate supply to respond to shifts in aggregate demand
without nominal rigidity. The second introduces a "confidence multiplier", namely a positive feedback between loop between re
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